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Demand forecasting is the estimate of how many units you will sell, by SKU and by channel, over a stated period. The four methods CPG brands actually use, what data each one needs, the conditions that break them, and how to tell whether yours is working.
· 10 min read
A reorder point (ROP) is the inventory level at which you need to place a new order with your supplier—the trigger that tells you it's time to reorder.
· 5 min read
Safety stock is the inventory you hold above the forecast to cover the weeks the forecast is wrong. How to size it from your own demand and lead-time variability, with a stated service level and a worked example.
· 10 min read
Sales thinks demand will be 20% higher. Operations thinks last year's numbers are right. Finance split the difference. Sound familiar? Consensus forecasting solves this.
· 6 min read
Static forecasts go stale. Rolling forecasts evolve with your business. Here's how to build a forecasting process that stays current and actually drives decisions.
· 6 min read
You don't need a PhD to use statistical forecasting. Here's a practical overview of the methods that work for CPG brands—and when to use each one.
· 6 min read
Forecasting looks forward using historical patterns. Sensing looks at now using real-time signals. Understanding the difference—and when each matters—improves your demand planning.
· 5 min read
A new SKU has no sales history, so you forecast it from something else: an analogue SKU, the retailer's own commitment, and then the first real weeks of sell-through. What each is good for, and exactly when each stops being trustworthy.
· 8 min read
Every forecast error has a cost—whether it's lost sales from stockouts or cash trapped in excess inventory. Here's how to quantify what inaccurate forecasting is actually costing your business.
· 6 min read
Some businesses need weekly forecasts to stay responsive. Others do fine with monthly. Here's how to decide which cadence fits your operations—and when to change it.
· 5 min read
Promotions spike demand—but how much? And what happens after? Here's how to adjust your forecasts for promotional events without getting whipsawed by the volatility.
· 6 min read
Measure seasonality per SKU, not as one curve for the catalogue. Remove growth and promotions before you calculate it, then work back from the peak through real lead times to the date each order has to be placed.
· 6 min read